Subset Games Forum

Throwing out some achievement runs (mainly a bunch of runs I restarted while trying to get Diplomatic Immunity), and some runs with modded ships (some wins and a bunch of losses with my own challenge ship), I'm at 13 wins out of 14, from the arbitrary point where I started keeping track. The one loss was stupid: I was in the final sector, didn't check whether two nearby beacons were actually connected, and because they weren't, I was effectively walled off from the flagship and it got too close to the base. It was absolutely a winnable game.

MartectX wrote:I think the fact that no ship save one can kill the Boss out of hangar and that the RNG could be manipulated to give you nothing of interest, the proof is right there in front of our eyes.

Both the Engi A and Zoltan B have this capability. The Crystal B also essentially has it - all you need it *anything* to take down the Phase 3 Super Shield.

shadowcrust wrote:Also, you can play the Basilisk, if you think that's your only chance for a sure win against bad luck.

The Carnelian would the the more reliable, consistent choice.



While I wouldn't strictly claim all games are winnable, I haven't actually encountered one that wasn't. The combination of things that need to go against you in order to be unwinnable with perfect play is well outside the realm of normalcy. I can see realistic scenarios taking down the DA-SR 12 in Sector 1, but I don't really see it happening elsewhere. I'd expect over the course of enough games, my win rate with the Stealth B would be around 98.5% and with other ships would be around 99.8%.

I like your self-confidence, wanna play? Also, do you have some kinds of statistics for your claimed percentages?

To make it easier (and shorter), I'll shoot you down after the first jump, all with ships I've actually encountered (as far as I remember the details), and if you haven't been incredibly lucky (which I think you have been and that bolsters your confidence), then you have seen these encounters as well.

Obviously not all games with the vortex can be won, but I think all games can be won with the federation cruiser. The artillery beam is by far the most consistent weapon, all you need to do is max it and increase your defense.

Not to throw more fuel on the fire but I remembered today that my Kestrel loss was BS. It was in the final sector and if the game hadn't decided that "you didn't reach the flagship in time" I'd have beaten it at my base quite easily.

So really I "fairly" lost 4 out of 36 or 2 out of 18 or 1 out of 9, or about 89%.

shadowcrust wrote:Do you have some kinds of statistics for your claimed percentages?

If you read, those percentages are just an estimate of what I'd expect if I played enough games to make any sort of reasonable sample size. I only have solid numbers on the 18/18 - 100%. It's simply not fun to do vanilla Normal games because success is all but guaranteed; I have no time nor interest to drop hundreds of additional hours on doing boring Normal runs. If that means you'll think of the chance of automatic failure for the game to be 2% instead of under 1% so be it.

I agree that it is not much fun to go for winning streaks, and I understand why you don't want to bother to increase your sample size. However, that simply shows that your cited expected win percentages are based on no reliable data at all and have to be regarded as wild guesses.

There is some middle ground between hard data and wild guesses, you know. That's mainly semantics if you're collecting statistics, but still.

Vanilla: 19 wins out of 27 runs, once with each ship and a second time with the Kestrel

My 8 losses:
2 with the Torus, one of which made it to the boss
1 loss with the Nisos in sector 1 after a few jumps
3 losses with the Man of War; don't recall why I had a hard time with that ship
1 loss with the Bravais; this was my fault - in sector 3, in an asteroid field, I failed to notice that it was a boarding event. I thought I would get through the fight okay, but then I noticed my shields weren't up where they should've been. Three guys broke into the shield room from the room below, and my hull wasn't in good enough shape to take the beating that followed.
1 loss with the Carnelian; I don't think this one was my fault. I kept encountering auto-ships and Zoltan ships. Without being able to upgrade, my health eventually got whittled down.

itg wrote:There is some middle ground between hard data and wild guesses, you know. That's mainly semantics if you're collecting statistics, but still.

Ok, let me rephrase that: the cited expected win percentages are unsubstantiated, not wild guesses. Using such accurate numbers without providing a clue how they were calculated is just that, unsubstantiated, and shows that 73.354% of numbers are made up.