Speculated History of the Federation to Present

[John Luke Pack Hard]

By examining the events that occur in various points and a little bit of intuition "and what I know from CrashCourse and AP History", I have constructed a possible history leading up to the run of the Kestrel.

*Speculation is based upon the typical course that modern history works, assuming that space history tends to run the same course of modern history.

EDIT:
-Edited Rock First Contact to properly reflect an in-game event

REQUEST:
If you find any events in the game that further prove, contradict, or suggest an entirely different outcome, please don't hesitate to post.

Foundation of the Federation
Much of this part is vague and details are wholly unknown (Still waiting on the mod of this period's namesake to come out), but the Federation encounters most of the species present in the game (except for the Crystal species).

The Engi turn out to be friendly - they themselves see the Federation as a "beneficial exchange of resources and knowledge". Diplomatic and trade relations are quickly established.
-evidence various Engi events, referencing "good standing" with the federation
-entry to Engi sector says the fall of the Federation left the Engi in "Hard Times", indicating significant trade relations

The Zoltans, on the other hand, remain more neutral in their discussions with the burgeoning Federation. First contact was met with suspicion and perceived threats of aggression, neutralized only by the presence of the Engi. From then on, diplomatic contact was limited only to urgency and necessity.
-Reference Zoltan events often resulting in no contact or misunderstanding leading to battle
-Reference Zoltan event calling Federation "net positive" indicating prior contact with race

When the Federation discovered the Rock Homeworlds, they found a people ruled by a tight theocracy that did its best to isolate its population from other influences. As a result, the Rock were already predisposed to dislike alien races. The Rock, scanning the Federation expedition ships data cores and finding "heresy", chased away the Federation envoys and assumed hostility toward any Federation vessel. From then on, they were largely left alone.
-Reference event where Rock vessel scans your data stores and exlaims "Heresy!"
-Reference event where captain of fugitive Rock vessel expresses dismay at Rock "Big Brother" type theocracy
-Event involving Rock pirates refer to the species as having "few diplomatic ties". This suggests either few attempts at diplomacy or many failed ones were made.
-Reference event where captain of Rock vessel says "We were told the aliens were a threat to our ways" [Credits: 0evil_overlord0]

Slugs introduced themselves into the Federation rather quickly, sensing a market-based economy and another lucrative source of income. Of course, since most slugs operated independently and dishonestly - often as pirates, thieves, and crooked merchants - the race, as a whole, earned a bad reputation, despite having a decent diplomatic standing with the Federation.
-Reference description of Slug crew members at store stations "largely looked down upon".

Enemy Encounters
Expeditionary forces into uncharted systems encountered pirate ships manned by fierce insectoid warriors who often boarded the scout ships and attempted to take them by force. The Federation dubbed this race the "Mantis" and found them to be a warrior-culture race composed mostly of pirates. At first, the Federation attempted diplomatic contact via gunboat diplomacy to find if the Mantis had any central authority coordinating their race. If so, relations were to be established and hostilities were to be ceased. This mission met no such success, but a sizeable fleet of Mantis hunters looking to adorn their wall with the trophy remains of a Federation capital ship.
-Speculation of Mantis war-like nature. Events above could've unfolded differently.

Word spread among the Mantis of an expanding empire full of riches to be looted, and prey that was cunning and intelligent. Word spread among Federation officials that "Mantis" pirates were found in increasing numbers actively ransacking Federation colonies. In addition, the Federation learned from the Engi that the Mantis often operated as independent raiders and threatened the Engi very often as well.

The Federation sought to secure the borders of their colonies and their newfound allies, increasing security patrols and sending in heavier forces to combat the Mantis presence. Increasing forces only served to increase the frequency and size of Mantis raids; the warrior culture viewed the tightened security as greater and more dangerous prey. Seeing the correlation, the Federation council decided that the only way to stop the raids was to cripple its source, and the first invasion was ordered of the Mantis homeworlds.
-Speculation, again. Something caused the war, because there definitely was a war.

The Federation-Mantis War
The Mantis proved to be a formidable enemy. Having been battle-tested for most of their lives, a Mantis ship was formidable on its own, but with the heralding of war, the race demonstrated their devastating capability of organized combat.
-Evidence event that references "Federation-Mantis war"

The casualties inflicted on the Mantis were enough to drive them back and reduce the number of Mantis pirates in Federation space at the cost of thousands of Federation ships, millions of Federation lives, and damage estimated in the Quadrillions. As a result, the Federation was forced to pull their security forces back to their own border and out of Engi space.
-No evidence, but there is a surprising lack of Federation security....
-Also could be that the war resulted in "middling" losses and casualties, and the security forces were simply pulled back to sector 8 to brace for the rebel fleet
-An event involving a Mantis scout has a line introduction "Foolish Alien! Your kind has stifled our greatness for too long! You will rue the day you backed the Federation!", indicating that the Federation posed, in the past, some sort of threat to the Mantis.

Although the Mantis no longer had the strength to mount a full-scale invasion of heavily-protected Federation core sectors, nothing would stop them from mounting an invasion upon Engi-controlled sectors. Buildup of their forces prompted the Engi to retreat to their homeworld to brace for the Mantis incursion.
-Evidence "Mantis incursions/invasion" of Engi Homeworld sector. Multiple references to Engi's trying to outrun Mantis Invasion.
-Reference events where Engi vessels are trying to escape Mantis takeover.
-NOTE there are a million possible reasons why the Mantis turned their attention to the Engi. All that is known is that the Mantis threaten Engi-controlled sectors at the time of the game.

Debt and Disrepair
The Federation had borrowed countless resources that needed to be repaid, not only to creditors within it's borders but also to the Engi and especially to the Zoltan - who weren't known to give anything for nothing.
-Debt is speculation. Zoltan policies reference message upon entering Zoltan-controlled sector.

Federation councilmen debated on the best course of action: repay their debts, or restore the damage done by the war? Defaulting on their debts would further drive their precarious economy into shambles as well as damage relations with their allies. On the other hand, the outer colonies could not, for the most part, operate independently and were in dire need of aid.
-Reference Greece's current economic situation. Austerity or aid? A very hard decision for politicians to make.

The council ultimately decided to take the middle path. Pay their debts to the allied races first, consolidate their debts to war bond holders, and give enough aid to the outer colonies so that they could fend for themselves in the meantime.

"Enough aid" was not enough, to say the least. With most of the Federation's ships destroyed, the meager aid give to the outer colonies by the Federation council was spotty. To add to their woes, pirate attacks and slaver raids rose to fill the hole from the Federation's lack of security.
-Evidence frequent Pirate encounters

The colonists grew increasingly desperate. By the year's end, most colonies had a vigilante crew to make up for the lack of Federation police. Federation mines were ransacked and overtaken for precious minerals used for reconstruction. At first, the vigilantes chased down pirates found attacking systems or passenger vessels. This escalated to pre-emptive attacks on any ship found with outcast markings. Soon enough, as resources became scarce, the vigilante crews became much less discriminate in who was to be raided, safe only if they emitted colonist frequencies.
-Common result of lack of security. Evidence vigilante networks in areas of USA that are often too small to have police.
-Entry into Rebel sector results in introduction message "The alien outposts here were being carefully watched by the Rebel bases heavy-handedly 'keeping the peace'."

Rise of the Rebellion
As the vigilantes stepped up their raids of Federation vessels, the council deemed the outer colony regions too unsafe for Federation aid, keeping forces in outposts to monitor the outlying sectors and maintain a military presence.
-evidence Federation loyalist colonies, Federation outpost events, the Kestrel has to start somewhere right?

The outlying colonies began to voice their grievances. Representatives of the outer colonies demanded more radical action; that the debt was to be ignored, that more aid was to be given, that more aggressive action was to be taken in attaining resources. Planets once declared wildlife refuges to un-developed sentient species fell victim to rogue colonist speculation operations.
-evidence event where rebel declares "these aliens will not be left in ignorance!"

These colonies united in their common grievance against the Federation; that so-called "ideals" were being held above the livelihoods of its citizens. Cut off from aid but also the controlling hand of the Federation, these united colonists restored their sectors in a matter of months, in part from ignoring Federation limitations and an efficient authoritarian command hierarchy.
-Nazi Germany experienced a similar history. Deeply in debt, they radicalized, and with military efficiency, turned their floundering economy into a hyper-efficient war-machine.

[Possible Federation civil war could've occurred here preceding the Rebel advance on the Federation capital. 404 - No references to civil war was found]

These radical elements of colonists united to form the Rebel Empire, officially succeeding from the Federation. Massive industrial capacity allows the Rebels to form their own fleet, negating the need of Federation security. However, long-range sensors/Federation spies/Engi stealth ships/*insert method here* find out *information* that the Rebel Empire is planning to take over the rest of the Federation. The Federation's top-ranking admirals determine that the only way to gather enough strength to stop the Rebel coup is to consolidate the remaining fleet at the Federation capital station, where they can stage a final stand.
-They could've just succeeded. Alas, at the start of the game, you are being chased by the Rebel fleet. By the end of it, there is a massive battle to determine "the fate of the Federation".

A Federation outpost on an outer-fringe sector learns of the construction of the Rebel Flagship: faster than a scout with the armaments to level a space station - guaranteed to devastate the Federation fleet remnants. Long-range sensors/Federation spies/Engi stealth ships/*insert method here* scan the construction of the flagship and find/figure out the blueprints/weaknesses of the flagship. With the advent of inter-sector messaging relays still a significant time away, the outpost refits an outdated ship, "the Kestrel", to relay the message to the Federation central command and figure out a way to stop the flagship.
-Well, what other information could you be carrying? A recipe for muffins?
-There has to be some other reason why the rebels would be hunting for your head, because your ship is not threatening at all at the start of the game.

The Perpetual Player - History Repeats Itself
The captain of the "Kestrel", whose name was never recorded, leads his small, hopeless craft to the Federation core sector. Although s/he gathers plenty of resources and upgrade the ship to become rather formidable, most of the time a string of bad luck or careless decisions would lead to his/her demise. That or the rebel flagship, upon seeing "the last hope of the Federation", would enjoy a good laugh, and then blow the "Kestrel" to smithereens. Most of the time, the captain decided against taking the Kestrel and using a more powerful ship supplied by over-space manufacturers. That only resulted in a different ship being blown to smithereens. They also didn't come with warranties. How sad ;(

At some point a technician had to come and reboot the universe, because the "retry" button can only bend time up to seven times.

Eventually, the captain leads a vessel armed with legitimately acquired and totally not modded weapons and destroys the rebel flagship, scattering Rebel command and resulting in Federation victory over the Rebel fleet.

Reclamation
However, though the Rebels were defeated and their forces were scattered in disarray, the passing of their fleet over multiple sectors on their way to sector 8 lead to those sectors being stripped of resources. The Federation set out to complete their mission, cleaning up the remaining rebels, consolidating their holds, and restore the worlds of their own and their allies in...-

Somebody make a f***ing mod for this already.

[0evil_overlord0]

One of the rock surrender options says "we were told aliens were a threat to our ways." I think the heresy and lies that rockmen talk about have to do with the rock government feeding them information about how evil aliens are.

[John Luke Pack Hard]

One of the rock surrender options says "we were told aliens were a threat to our ways." I think the heresy and lies that rockmen talk about have to do with the rock government feeding them information about how evil aliens are.

This indicates a closed government trying to control outside influences akin to Iranian theocracy and Chinese party controls. In addition, the Rock probably have had prior contact with other alien races.

History has been edited to properly reflect that.

[azelea]

What an excellent post!

I think the zoltan ship unlock event as well as the great eye suggests that the zoltan are peaceful mystics. They may not have deep trade relationships, but they certainly seem more friendly than 'neutral'.

The rock unlock event shows that they were once part of the federation.

[Nimbostratus]

Maybe this is just my perception, but the Rocks seem the "proud warrior" type to me - they believe that might makes right, and will side with whoever is the strongest. Thus they currently fight for the Rebels, but (as far as I've seen) Rock ships often surrender if you're clearly beating them.

[azelea]

I think it's just the opposite. Rock's don't surrender easily.

They seem to be the proud warrior type, although with a strong isolationist streak.

[John Luke Pack Hard]

What an excellent post!

I think the zoltan ship unlock event as well as the great eye suggests that the zoltan are peaceful mystics. They may not have deep trade relationships, but they certainly seem more friendly than 'neutral'.

The rock unlock event shows that they were once part of the federation.

Could you pull up the exact text of the unlock events for analysis?

[Zalminen]

The rock unlock event shows that they were once part of the federation.

Could you pull up the exact text of the unlock events for analysis?

The text doesn't imply anything like that as far as I can tell...

Don't have time to copy-paste the texts here now but you can easily check them yourself, just open resources\data.dat in a text editor and search for ROCK_UNLOCK1.

[Kieve]

Fantastic post! Failing actual developer clarification of the lore, this is definitely good enough to provide guidelines for stories and mods.

However, given the 90% +/- failure rate of "The Kestrel" and crew, and the overwhelming force pursuing you through every known sector imaginable, I have a slightly different interpretation of the overall outcome.

Somebody make a f***ing mod for this already.

FTL:Incursion is based on the premise that, despite the best efforts of the Federation, the Rebels win. Flagship destroyed, battle lost, but war won.
*I'm open to suggestions on what the "Rebel" government would call itself once securing power. Consider that it would be, first and foremost, a military regime.